A Perspective of the Innovation-Diffusion Process from the ：一种从创新扩散过程的视角
Diffusion of Innovations
Kathy Gill 21 October 2019
? Rogers Model ? Bass Model ? Stages
? Identified four main elements of an innovation-diffusion process ? Innovation ? Social system ? Time ? Communications channels
Linear innovation-diffusion theory ? The process by which an innovation is
communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system. (Rogers, 2019, P.5).
? An idea, practice, or object that is perceived as new by an individual or other unit of adoption
? A process in which participants create and share information with one another in order to reach mutual understanding (Rogers, 2019).
? The adoption model follows an “s” shape curve over time
? The mental process through which an individual passes from first knowledge to forming an attitude toward the innovation (adopt, reject)
? Knowledge ? Persuasion ? Decision (adopt or reject) ? Implementation ? Confirmation
? A set of interrelated units that are engaged in joint problem-solving to accomplish a common goal.
? Members or units of a social system may be individuals, informal groups, organizations, and/or subsystems.
? Rogers (2019) : "the critical mass occurs at the point at which enough individuals have adopted an innovation so that the innovation's further rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining.”
? The critical mass is a social system perspective, while the dominant design is a technology perspective.
? The irreversible phase may take place when not only the critical mass point is overcome but also the dominant design is brought about at least in terms of the technological innovation.
? Innovators ? Early adopters ? Early majority ? Late majority ? Laggards
? Hardware - the tool that embodies the technology as a material or physical object.
? Software - the knowledge base for the tool
The first Japanese word processor (Toshiba 1978）
Japanese Word Processor Shipments
40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
number of shipment cumulative number of shipment
（The industrial association of Japan office machines） 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
Number of firms selling Japanese word processors
M acintosh P IC T im age form at
is not supported
Unit prices of WP and PC (MITI)
M acin to sh P IC T im ag e fo rm at
is n o t su p p o rted
Bass model (1969)
x: cumulative number of adopters at time t, K: population of potential adopters in the social system, a: internal influence factors, and, b: external influence factors.
External influences (Bass 1969)
? Vertical channel(s) of communication ? Centralized channel(s) of communication ? A structured channel(s) of communication ? A formal channel(s) of communication
Internal influences (Bass 1969)
? Horizontal channels of communication ? Decentralized channels of
communication ? Unstructured, informal channels of
Stages of Technological Development
? Innovation ? Imitation ? Competition ? Standardization
? Characterized by high uncertainty, trial-and-error problem solving, make-shift production
? Bioengineering ? Nanotechnology ? ??
? Characterized by decreasing uncertainty as new firms enter sector and develop variants on basic innovation
? Solor-collector technology
? R&D leads to process improvements, smaller firms find it harder to enter industry, competition weeds out those who do not make improvements
? Semi-conductors ? RAM ? Hard drives?
? “Ideal” product has been found/created, R&D focuses on preserving lifecycle; shift to price competition
? Pocket calculators ??